People migrate for many reasons, but climate change is already providing
people with plenty of them. A major reason is a lack of resources that leads
to impoverished conditions. Migration is also an option for those looking for
work. As the agricultural sector in the United States is well aware, even
illegal migrations can have a profound impact on a nation and a culture, as
well as a commodity.

DISAPPEARING ISLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS

Tuvalu is a nation in the South Pacific situated atop nine coral atolls that is
swiftly disappearing. Both rising sea waters and repeated storm battering
have left the islands nearly uninhabitable. Salt water has risen into the
water table, killing many of the island's main food crop: coconut. Thought
the nation refuses to give up, its citizens are now being accepted into New
Zealand as environmental refugees.

The islands of Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea were abandoned in 1999 with
ceremony. Even the Marshall Islands, where the US famously tested a great
many nuclear devices have been severely eroded and may have to be
abandoned in the next few decades. Coral atolls are especially vulnerable
because they are supported by living organisms that suffer greatly from
pollutants and grow slowly in the best of conditions. When they die, the
islands crumble.

Coastal areas and barrier islands are also vulnerable. Partly because they
are home to a large portion of the human population. Islands such as the
Maldives and the Atlantic barrier islands are essential parts of hurricane
defense for the coastal mainland. When they're gone, the coasts are far
more vulnerable. Beaches in the US are being worn away faster than is
historically noted, with many famous and developed beaches having sand
brought in at a tremendous “carbon cost.”

These areas are under threat from storm surges, weather erosion, salt-water
inundation and an unprecedented number of large storms. Not only are
South Pacific nations under threat, but some of the major centers of the
world now have plans for flood preparedness. London is a good example of a
city that could be underwater in a century if sea level rises are as swift as
some climatologists predict.

REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH

As with all the physical tumult caused by a warming world, society is already
feeling the impact of climate change. Whether in the form of higher food and
fuel prices or chaotic markets, the old saying is true: the rich are getting
richer. And, it's only going to get worse.

Of course, this has been going on for quite some time, but given that oil
companies are able to reap giant rewards for extracting a substance that
they are not, generally, required to do anything about. Those who have
planned ahead and are prepared for the greatest changes are the only people
who can even hope to emerge from a climate change scenario even relatively
unscathed.

Wealth isn't like energy – it can be created just as it can be destroyed. The
likelihood that real climate change trouble will cause instability in the
currency markets goes without saying. It's already happening due to
fluctuations in the price of commodity goods and banking failures.

It remains to be seen what form wealth will take in the latter 21st century,
though it seems likely that, just as now, energy sectors will continue to be
big winners. Whether this will take the form of large projects or distributed
networks of local even individual power is not clear. Where renewable power
generation is networked, the remains of the 20th century may also retain
some of the accumulated wealth of “the oil days.”

WATER WARS AND OTHER RESOURCE CONFLICT

No matter what side of the political fence one may be on, it now seems
reasonable to say that the conflicts in Iraq, Kuwait, Georgia, Afghanistan and
other oil-rich countries in recent years probably have something to do with
oil. However, actions between nations in those areas is increasingly bound
up in the state of the local water supply.

It is said that about 20% of people on Earth live without regular access to
fresh water. One of the major goals of humanitarian organizations has been
to assist with methods of generating renewable and safe waters for
communities that have already been suffering from water shortages and
bouts of water-borne illness that have been made worse in recent years as a
consequence of climate change.

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As if floods, storms, fires and lack of fresh water weren't enough of a
problem! What makes climate change such a massive threat to life on Earth
are the innumerable ways the effects of a greenhouse-warmed atmosphere
ripple out and cause trouble everywhere.

EXTINCTION PRESSURE

The 20th century was not kind to plant and animal life on Earth. During that
time the human population has exploded, and increased lifestyle
expectations worldwide have increased the pressure on rare and unique
ecosystems. Though a great amount of land has been put into parkland and
national trust, countries that face great pressures have been known to relax
the rules to such an extent that the lands are far less than ideally protected
from human pressures on wildlife.

While some species continue to be hunted for their flesh, fur and feathers,
most run the risk of extinction through habitat destruction. It is predicted
that Mount Kilimanjaro will loose its snowy cap by 2020 as a result of climate
change induced low precipitation and warmer temperatures. What is less
well known is that the unique habitat that exists at the top of that mountain
will likely disappear forever, too.

PEST OUTBREAKS

Insects and other invertebrates breed faster when temperatures are higher.
As a result, climate change will favor these highly adaptable creatures, likely
resulting in major pest outbreaks in all major agricultural areas. Places
where pest populations have been reliably killed from one year to another
are beginning to see mild winter seasons that leave pest populations
unvanquished.

The potential for these secondary effects of climate change to wreck havoc
on food production is enormous. Given that most of the world's caloric needs
are met with just five food crops (maize, wheat, rice, cassava, potato), the
likelihood of one of these crops developing a pathogen such as Southern
Corn Blight in the 1970s or the soft rot bacteria that caused the Irish Potato
Famine is great.

INSECTS

A great many of the pests that threaten agricultural production as well as
human and animal health are insects. These creatures have the ability to
reproduce out of control without predators of their own. Exotic insect pests
without natural enemies are also a concern, especially in area dominated by
agricultural production, such as California that has been protected by
agricultural inspection for many years, now.

Perhaps more importantly, many of the insecticides that are on the market
today for commercial food production are made from oil or with a lot of help
from it. In a carbon-neutral future, these petrochemical inputs are liable to
be saved as a course of last resort when organic methods don't work in a
cost-effective manner for as long as they're available.

FUNGUS AND BACTERIA

Also prone to exponential growth when conditions are right, most fungus and
bacteria thrive in warm and moist conditions. They are also more likely to
invade crops that are stressed from poor mineral nutrition and the low vigor
conditions that arise in drought conditions. When conditions do turn wet
again, the fungus and bacteria are ready to go, faster than most crop plants.

A lack of biodiversity in the plant world can puts crop plants at higher risk
because there are fewer unique plants to breed useful characteristics from.
Though biotechnology and GMO use traits from organisms that would
otherwise be unable to breed, these mutated organisms can get in the pollen
supply of wild varieties, contaminating the wild types with a genotype that
could prove problematic in the future.

FOOD SUPPLY PANICS

The pressures on agriculture due to climate change are intense. Land is
becoming less available as population pressures, especially on inland areas
are due to increase dramatically. Water chaos makes it very hard to rely
upon rainfall without irrigation, increasing the cost of production. Annual
systems are harder to tend under these and increased pest pressures.

Add to this the increased cost of transport from rural to urban areas.
Transport fuel is the most prone to price inflation, and as crops are now
being used to fuel transport, even more food is taken out of the human
supply. During the 2007-2008 spike in the global price of oil, many areas
began to feel the pressure of rising food costs, including North America.
Other countries have experienced actual food riots for the first time (outside
of wartime) in generations.

Simply put, hungry people are not happy people, especially if they're not
accustomed to shortages of any kind. In such circumstances, people tend to
either seek extreme changes or move on.

Tags: climate change, reduce fuel consumption, hydrogen fuel

There are no individual storms or weather oddities that one can really
label a “climate change storm.” Climate change is the likelihood of more
powerful and frequent events that range from freezing to fire. However,
taken together, the signs of climate change are all around and readily
felt by anyone.

DROUGHT

As the climate becomes more energetic with additional heat, the whirling
and swirling patterns of atmosphere that create weather become harder to
predict. Places that could rely upon a single springtime rain, for in-
stance, are now learning to expect that rain at just about any time of
the year. The old patterns of weather that have been established by a
few hundred years of recorded observations are no longer holding true.

It is estimated that about 40% of the world's surface is made of arid
“dry lands.” These areas are home to many of the worlds crop plants and
a majority of the word's indigenous people. While areas that have been
traditionally dry have plants, animals and people that are accustomed to
dealing with weather events, it's actually far more temperate climates
thatwill suffer the greatest effect of increased drought events. Existing
dry land areas are likely to become less productive over time, though
they may be more resilient.

FIRE

Fire events are already much more severe and frequent in arid areas than
they were even 20 years ago, and this is true worldwide. Climate change is
directly responsible for creating a larger number of storms that spawn
lightning. The long increase in North American wildfires that began in the
1950s has been made worse by several man-made factors in North America.

In the US, fire suppression for decades has caused vast tracts of the arid
West to become overgrown with small, highly combustible flames that cause
fires to burn hotter and longer than a forest composed of the natural climax
materials would. So, this means that forests that would otherwise survive
quick burning fires that raced through mature forests, juvenile forests are
utterly destroyed. Such fires also tend to spread further.

FLOOD

The danger of flooding comes both from rising sea levels and increasingly
severe rainfall events. Instead of coming throughout the year, many places
that are used to gentle rains are now subject to several storms, punctuated
by long dry-spells.This causes soils to be less able to allow rainwater to
percolate through the subsoil and recharge aquifers. Instead, erosion is
accentuated and much needed groundwater becomes run-off that is much more
prone to coming in contact with pollutants.

Coastal areas that have been prone to semi-regular flooding in the past are
now on constant flood alert, as evidenced by the dramatic increase in the
number of flood days in Venice. The effect has already been felt by marine
mammal populations that are finding it ever-harder to survive due to
unseasonable rains and habitat destruction.

Sea level rises have already been measured at about 20cm in the last cent-
ury. This is due partly to the actual release of land-based glaciers into
the seas and partly due to the expansion of warmer water. While the melting
of Arctic ice floes won't add much volume to the seas, melt from Antarctica
certainly will – as much as 88cm in total by 2100. This would mark the first
major variation is sea level since at least Roman times.

HURRICANE AND TORNADO

Hurricanes are the most energetic of storms. They occur in tropical waters
when the sea temperatures rise above 75F/23C. Several of the worst
Atlantic hurricane seasons have occurred in the past decade, with damages
to property and life becoming extreme in areas where such storms were once
a rarity. Even in areas well outside the tropical zone, super-storms have
remained intact long enough to reach countries that have previously been
safe from hurricane activity such as Northern Europe.

Hurricanes are often talked about because they are such a concentrated form
of sheer climate power, but nothing is as powerful as the tornadoes, which
can reach speeds in excess of 300mph/483kph. These storms have already been
appearing with greater frequency over a longer season throughout the North
America continent. They have also been spotted over major cities that have
traditionally enjoyed some amount of topographical protection. Tornado
seasons throughout the 'aughts have been well above average, with nearly
twice as many twisters spotted in 2008 as “average.”

WATER SUPPLIES

The threats to water supplies have already been seen in the form of
contamination events and shortages. Part of this in North America is due
to agricultural practices as well as the large and largely unproductive
use of water in rapidly expanding suburban areas. Areas that rely upon
river flows for their water supply are having to deal with increasingly
erratic flows that have varied between floods and shortages for several
years now.

Australia has suffered several years of drought that threaten their massive
wine industry. Regions that had previously grown rich from the implement-
ation of high-efficiency irrigation are finding water harder and
harder to come by.

Tags: grow your own produce, greenhouse gardening, reduce fuel consumption

One of the most important aspects of keeping one step ahead of climate
change is making sure good data is being received on the many different
fronts that climate change is having an impact.

CARBON LEVELS

As of 2007, there were an average of 384ppm of carbon in the atmosphere,
by weight. These levels fluctuate on a predictable schedule according to the
growing season in North America, having the majority of the world's
temperate plants. The rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was dramatic
enough, even in the 1950s, to have been monitored for changes.

Bear in mind that the variance between glacial time periods and the current
interglacial period that encompasses the majority of recorded human history
and civilization varied by only 70ppm. It doesn't take much of a change in
carbon dioxide concentrations to cause some very serious Earth changes.

CONTINUED EMISSIONS

Not only do emissions need to be capped, but they must actually stop
altogether before any real improvement in things can begin. As long as
there is petroleum and coal, there's little likelihood that the nations of the
world will just keep their hands off the last oil. It is thought that even with
strict international agreements and controls, the levels of carbon in the
atmosphere will very likely double by 2100, causing what could be as much
as 5.8C warming in the global average.

Those same models suggest the actual figure, based upon what is currently
known about atmospheric sciences could also be as low as 2C. That could be
the difference to the end of nearly all life on Earth and simple flooding and
migration events that could allow the polar bear to be preserved. However,
the amount of carbon dioxide that must be emitted to attain a sustainable
future without severe tolls on human populations is also quite great.

THE OZONE-DEPLETION MODEL

The production of sulfur dioxide is a very worrisome possible consequence of
climate change, as this would also further deplete the ozone layer that is
already hanging on like a loose tooth. CFCs are also rather potent
greenhouse gasses, that have been cut back in the early 'aughts thanks to
international agreements that phased out their production over many years.
However, the ozone and cold aerosol cycles are not well-known and it wasn't
until 1999 that researchers began to realize that the effect of tropical water
vapor as a result of climate change was making the ozone depleting aerosols
at the poles even more effective at destroying ozone. The net effect is
makes polar melting even faster. So, even though ozone is a greenhouse
gas, its lack actually has more impact because of the way it affects the
circulation of what is actually the biggest greenhouse gas of all: water vapor

NEW SOURCES OF GASEOUS CARBON

As the effects of climate change intensify, it is believed that vast amounts of
carbon that have been stored away for a very long time may be released.
One example of this are peat bogs that surround the regions near the polar
ice caps. As these begin to decompose, microbial activity will release
massive amounts of carbon dioxide. This is an example of a feedback effect.
These feedbacks accelerate the pace of climate changes even further when
one of these tipping points is reached. Other potential sources include a
massive die-off of marine life that would result in starving the oceans of
oxygen. A lifeless ocean is essentially unable to absorb excess carbon
dioxide, increasing the amount of excess carbon added to the atmosphere
each year.

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A SUMMARY OF CARBON EMISSIONS ON EARTH

Throughout the geologic record, there are plenty of events with high levels of carbon dioxide. However, the precipitous rise in greenhouse gasses,primarily caused by the unbridled use of petroleum, has created something not seen before: a change so sudden that it threatens to unhinge the very mechanisms by which weather and climate have unfolded for millions of years.

Geologic past

It is known for a fact that the atmosphere of prehistoric earth had very little,if any oxygen. Rocks as old as 3.5 billion years are sliced and analyzed to measure the amount of the gasses found within. It seems that the early atmosphere that brought about life was the result of an atmosphere that was largely carbon dioxide, resulting in a fully water-logged world with oceans that boiled.

Carbon from that distant past was locked away in massive subduction events that literally swallowed sections of the carbon-laden crust. It wasn't until just over 2.6 billion years ago that life evolved on Earth as simple anaerobic organisms, akin to modern cyanobacteria like those seen at Yellowstone's “Paint Pots.” It is thought that the atmosphere of the Saturnian moon, Titan, is at roughly the same stage of development where life evolved here.

Then the atmosphere cooled significantly, some researchers think, from changes in the ratio of methane to carbon dioxide to methane, casting it into the still warm atmosphere as methane dust that “shut down” the early greenhouse atmosphere gone wild. It's thought that after a period of glacial epochs, the Earth then settled down into temperatures generally more hospitable to life with the occasional ice age.

Throughout recorded history since people have been paying attention to the weather, there have been stories about how the climate may or may not be changing.  There is, for instance, evidence to suggest that the biblical flood was based upon a true event that occurred after the last ice age when a massive ice dam burst in Western Asia. More recently, there has been a relatively mild period about 8,600 years ago that is thought to have been caused when an ice dam broke in North America, draining massive Lake Agissiz.

Potential climate change models have been based on the so- called “8.6k year event” that raised sea levels by as much as 4 feet/1.3m while temperatures dropped worldwide by as much as 11C. In this case, gradual increases in carbon dioxide levels resulted in a sudden and dramatic result with global ramifications.

As a result, the Earth stayed cool for hundreds of years before rising carbon dioxide levels caused the temperature to go back up again and restore North Atlantic ocean circulation. It is entirely possible that this event made the first cities on Earth possible.

Since the Industrial Revolution the discovery of how to use the properties of coal to assist with manufacturing was very quickly associated with pollution and ill health. Soot caused crop losses because of reduced solar incidence and interfering with plant growth. As early as the 18th century scientists speculated that hundreds of years of burning coal at the “current” levels might result in a warming of the atmosphere and flooding.

Since about 1750, the concentration of carbon dioxide in that atmosphere has risen from about 270 parts per million (ppm) to nearly 400. This makes concentrations in the late 'aughts higher than they were for over 650,000 years. To make matters worse, the pace at which the concentration of carbon dioxide is accumulating has increased, with an alarming rise in the pace since the late 1990s. It is worth noting that coal usage in the US has continued to rise steadily for electric production into the 'aughts.

Large increases in the use of petroleum came with the advent of the personal automobile, as well as the war usage. Events such as the carbon from burning the oil fields in Kuwait and volcanic activity such as the massive eruption of Mount Pinatubo have also contributed. In normal years, volcanic activity that was once responsible for a very hot primordial Earth, accounts for less than a single percent of the carbon emitted from burning fossil fuels.

Tags: greenhouse gardening, green lifestyle, lower emmission

But, what a tough sell! The consequences were so very dire, and a worldwide effort to change the basis of an economy out of little more than force of will is a tall order. However, that's exactly what would now appear to be happening, in fits and starts, all over the world. While there is certainly plenty of work to be done, that some has started is a welcome change to many who have been beating the drum for decades trying to get anyone in a position of authority to take their warnings seriously.

With the same sort of effort that was expended during the Second World War, climate change is a challenge that can be tackled with cooperative effort. Even as related challenges would conspire to make that already daunting task even more difficult, innovation and cooperation are perhaps the most important ways to get out of it without taking all life on Earth with us.

HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The climate is not a stable thing. It is now understood that it goes through “seasonal” fluctuations that last for thousands of years at a time. Moreover,the relationship between the land, sea, atmosphere and the heavenly bodies is now being explored in even greater depth. Human beings now know what the climate has been like for longer than there's been human beings, but the mechanisms by which the delicate balance of our seemingly chaotic climate are still being worked out.

Though the mechanism by which greenhouse gases can have a profound impact on climate has been understood for far longer than the massive impact of an exponentially growing population on gas emissions. Though the ramifications are far better understood now, new discoveries are made every year.

In some ways, tinkering with the climate now is like performing brain surgery with an ice pick, but something has to happen, if only to hold things steady until something is figured out. Much of the study of classical climatological science sought to describe the constituent parts of the atmosphere and find reasons for historical climate events, such as the ice ages that were documented in the mid 19th century. Work in the 20th century sought to explain where atmospheric gasses come from, what they do and where they may go. It is perhaps ironic that humankind was already hip deep in some of the major atmospheric problems before anyone even knew how those systems worked.

EARLY EVIDENCE

Many climate scientists in the mid-20th century were tasked with tracking the atmospheric changes as a result of atmospheric nuclear tests. While their evidence led to the banning of such tests within a decade, several other puzzling and worrying trends began to emerge. Along with the scourges of smog and acid rain that were brought to the word's attention, climate change was just too terrible to be true.

The International Panel on Climate Change was created in 1988 to study whether there was a scientific consensus regarding the impact of human activities on the climate, including the warming already observed at that time. By 2000, the evidence was clear enough for a report to be issued stating that the debate was officially over.

Of course it took several more years for the debate to be truly over. A very small number of researchers who were willing to go on record with their version of events that could possibly be effecting “global warming” without the added influence of carbon dioxide, have received quite a bit of “face time” from North American media.

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